S&P 500

7,774

+0.66%

Nasdaq Composite

27,477

+1.05%

Dow Jones

51,268

+0.18%

Russell 2000

2,847

+0.50%

VIX

15.52

+1.37%

WTI crude

89.79

+0.40%

Gold

4,148

-0.22%

US 10Y

5.31%

+0.64%

Regime Radar →

Strong risk off

since Sep 28 · 6 sessions

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Regime RadarDailyComposite: Strong risk off · nine axes Fair ValueDaily66% of 757 names below fair value Golden TicketsWeekly+26% since Jan 2, 2026 vs S&P +13.4%Equal basket · gross of costs · through the week closing Oct 5, 2026 · S&P 500 as price return

How it works

From prediction to portfolio — and back again.

Each stage owns one question. Nothing reaches a portfolio without passing the ones before it.

Live books

Our books against the market

2026 year to date · as of Oct 5, 2026

Each line is the percent change from its own first close in the range, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026. Growth, Moderate and Conservative are the platform's model portfolios, run every trading day and net of modelled trading costs; GT — Equal is gross of costs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are price return (SPY, QQQ). Past results do not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.

How the books are built →See every Golden Ticket week →

Show the data

Fair value

The market against fair value

757 names · as of the Oct 5, 2026 close

Undervalued

65.5%

Overvalued

34.5%

Median gap

+11.3%

Gap above +20%

306

Gap below −20%

Top 10 undervalued

#	Symbol	Sector	Price	Fair value	Gap	P(under)
1	G	Information Technology	33.52	98.75	+194.6%	0.48
2	BILL	Information Technology	44.49	130.67	+193.7%	0.52
3	INTU	Information Technology	284.68	811.89	+185.2%	0.57
4	OMF	Financials	56.24	160.15	+184.8%	0.47
5	OSCR	Health Care	32.42	91.27	+181.5%	0.46
6	RNR	Financials	323.39	898.41	+177.8%	0.47
7	PRGS	Information Technology	37.22	101.12	+171.7%	0.52
8	BFH	Financials	98.90	266.80	+169.8%	0.53
9	AZN	Health Care	156.53	401.66	+156.6%	0.47
10	SMPL	Consumer Staples	9.94	25.27	+154.2%	0.50

1. G+194.6%
2. BILL+193.7%
3. INTU+185.2%
4. OMF+184.8%
5. OSCR+181.5%
6. RNR+177.8%
7. PRGS+171.7%
8. BFH+169.8%
9. AZN+156.6%
10. SMPL+154.2%

Top 10 overvalued

#	Symbol	Sector	Price	Fair value	Gap	P(under)
1	ALNY	Health Care	219.89	134.72	-38.7%	0.44
2	STX	Information Technology	887.09	552.87	-37.7%	0.43
3	TLN	Utilities	331.87	209.74	-36.8%	0.45
4	META	Communication Services	741.90	474.04	-36.1%	0.46
5	CELH	Consumer Staples	27.52	17.76	-35.5%	0.48
6	AFRM	Financials	74.75	49.40	-33.9%	0.49
7	ICLR	Health Care	168.33	111.94	-33.5%	0.45
8	SEDG	Information Technology	34.38	23.21	-32.5%	0.52
9	CRWV	Information Technology	87.39	59.45	-32%	0.45
10	OLMA	Health Care	8.25	5.64	-31.6%	0.54

1. ALNY-38.7%
2. STX-37.7%
3. TLN-36.8%
4. META-36.1%
5. CELH-35.5%
6. AFRM-33.9%
7. ICLR-33.5%
8. SEDG-32.5%
9. CRWV-32%
10. OLMA-31.6%

After each US trading day, we project most companies' cash flows from their latest annual report, discount them for Fed policy, credit spreads and each stock's risk, run 10,000 scenarios and blend in their own earnings and EBITDA multiples and book value. Gap compares fair value with the last close; P(under) is a separate model's probability of beating the average stock over three months. Lists: market capitalisation above $1B. Names whose cash-flow value fell below the three-month model's price range, or that the model flags as implausible, are left out of the figures and lists. A model's estimate, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell.

The full distribution, sector by sector →

Fair value

The market against fair value

Regime Radar

Composite: Strong risk off

Since Sep 28, 2026 · 6 days

Nine structural axes read separately and fused into one composite reading, published every trading day. Further out on the radar means more risk.

Composite

Strong risk off

Held

6 days

Open the Regime Radar →

Volatility

normal

Sentiment

very bearish

Liquidity

ample

Credit

distressed

Recession

low risk

Fundamentals

expansion

Inflation

moderate

Real yields

positive

Policy

restrictive

Self-serve

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